CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs TDK (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #2 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4223b1f159b909d24bdfc2a8c13aad6c1d0ae7bf73a5a40fe4f5c2150dd97505
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TDKof Rebels Gaming, TDK
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,424 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Rebels Gaming | 0c | 47,689$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 567 | 32.5%184 W · 383 L | -30.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Rebels Gaming | 1c | 4,320$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…520abacked Rebels Gaming | 18c | 1,535$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.77 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Rebels Gaming | 10c | 1,227$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.96 | 228 | 38.6%88 W · 140 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Rebels Gaming | 17c | 1,016$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.73 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Rebels Gaming | 19c | 888.88$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.89 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee30…9259backed Rebels Gaming | 19c | 876$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked TDK | 78c | 503.73$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.36 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc674…1176backed Rebels Gaming | 23c | 500.43$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x950c…e503backed Rebels Gaming | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…0efcbacked TDK | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7787backed Rebels Gaming | 22c | 481.56$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.17 | 207 | 43%89 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed TDK | 79c | 364.05$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -6.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -39%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebd…21cdbacked Rebels Gaming | 29c | 349.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed TDK | 69c | 318.46$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.26 | 557 | 38.4%214 W · 343 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed TDK | 80c | 305$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Rebels Gaming | 10c | 301.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…59bcbacked Rebels Gaming | 23c | 300.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Rebels Gaming | 14c | 299.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.19 | 540 | 32.4%175 W · 365 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Rebels Gaming | 8c | 237.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34a…710cbacked Rebels Gaming | 21c | 236.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…2a18backed TDK | 78c | 217.11$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…1be7backed TDK | 78c | 208.6$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Rebels Gaming | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked TDK | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked Rebels Gaming | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 388 | 44.3%172 W · 216 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Rebels Gaming | 19c | 186.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…17e0backed Rebels Gaming | 19c | 157.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Rebels Gaming | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c66…0a4fbacked TDK | 76c | 109$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b2…a85cbacked Rebels Gaming | 19c | 103.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Rebels Gaming | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b7…9b2fbacked Rebels Gaming | 19c | 93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Rebels Gaming | 19c | 88.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf348…e543backed TDK | 77c | 86.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 230 | 72.6%167 W · 63 L | +27.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked TDK | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa574…4596backed TDK | 73c | 65.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3207…86d9backed TDK | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…498dbacked TDK | 78c | 62.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 144 | 41%59 W · 85 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…7c8bbacked TDK | 78c | 57.93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Rebels Gaming | 20c | 57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…898bbacked Rebels Gaming | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked TDK | 77c | 30.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 130 | 53.8%70 W · 60 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8b57backed TDK | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked TDK | 79c | 27.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…fb43backed TDK | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee05…d6ccbacked TDK | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x483c…32babacked TDK | 78c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked TDK | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.