NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Wild: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4224d3fb03b7797c1fb19b6fb5422a0705075c9201bc3e4441a65b9a7a063857
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 52c | 6,066$3,156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,156.29 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 48c | 5,500$2,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,860 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Over | 52c | 2,490$1,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.76 | 283 | 53%150 W · 133 L | +16.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 1,292$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.35 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Under | 51c | 1,178$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.43 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Under | 48c | 941.49$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.57 | 695 | 50.1%348 W · 347 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08dd…55b0backed Under | 51c | 806.84$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 46c | 457$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.78 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 48c | 444$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.88 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Over | 50c | 329.74$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.87 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 51c | 299.21$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.6 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…9f3fbacked Under | 48c | 229.17$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.17 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a1…8ac4backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e93…e4f7backed Under | 51c | 123.24$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc416…8bd5backed Over | 52c | 101.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x553b…f71cbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Under | 50c | 99.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 48c | 93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c1…b4afbacked Under | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a0…f721backed Over | 58c | 26.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…81d1backed Over | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Wild: O/U 6.5this page
- Ducks vs. WildWild won
- Spread: Wild (-1.5)Wild won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.