Tennis · resolved market
Mauthausen: Darwin Blanch vs Matthew William Donald
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4265ae4e2aca930a51b91b0cb64147b7000a04bb7e7a322875a98e70049b8fc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Darwin Blanchof Darwin Blanch, Matthew William Donald
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Matthew William Donald | 13c | 21,100$2,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.79 | 312 | 34.6%108 W · 204 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Matthew William Donald | 7c | 2,181$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.79 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Matthew William Donald | 11c | 2,155$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.13 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc26a…b715backed Matthew William Donald | 11c | 2,084$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.29 | 573 | 21.8%125 W · 448 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Matthew William Donald | 13c | 1,869$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.97 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Matthew William Donald | 25c | 1,750$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.5 | 1,658 | 49.9%828 W · 830 L | +7.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Darwin Blanch | 75c | 1,477$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.2 | 977 | 45.2%442 W · 535 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Matthew William Donald | 16c | 1,215$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.57 | 272 | 31.3%85 W · 187 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc00…79f8backed Darwin Blanch | 79c | 1,197$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.73 | 410 | 60.5%248 W · 162 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Matthew William Donald | 12c | 1,071$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.34 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Matthew William Donald | 13c | 923.93$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Matthew William Donald | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 387 | 39.3%152 W · 235 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Matthew William Donald | 16c | 643.09$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.53 | 1,444 | 38%548 W · 896 L | -46.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a5…fc83backed Matthew William Donald | 11c | 600$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Matthew William Donald | 4c | 567.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1317backed Darwin Blanch | 75c | 520$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Matthew William Donald | 25c | 499.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.61 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…e22ebacked Darwin Blanch | 75c | 434$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 1,284 | 39.2%503 W · 781 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Matthew William Donald | 25c | 417.04$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.26 | 277 | 33.6%93 W · 184 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebde…1de0backed Matthew William Donald | 8c | 300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 891 | 34.3%306 W · 585 L | -40.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Matthew William Donald | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x901b…59efbacked Matthew William Donald | 14c | 199.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 295 | 19.7%58 W · 237 L | -15.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Matthew William Donald | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 363 | 49.6%180 W · 183 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Matthew William Donald | 10c | 189.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Matthew William Donald | 25c | 188.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Matthew William Donald | 15c | 180.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Matthew William Donald | 19c | 169$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 96 | 28.1%27 W · 69 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Matthew William Donald | 18c | 136.31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Matthew William Donald | 16c | 126$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Matthew William Donald | 25c | 118$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 342 | 42.4%145 W · 197 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Matthew William Donald | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 957 | 42.1%403 W · 554 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc41…ac6dbacked Matthew William Donald | 14c | 94.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Matthew William Donald | 14c | 93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 95 | 27.4%26 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb594…c1a0backed Darwin Blanch | 75c | 85.07$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 77 | 68.8%53 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Darwin Blanch | 73c | 80.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Matthew William Donald | 13c | 79.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Matthew William Donald | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 129 | 33.3%43 W · 86 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Matthew William Donald | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Matthew William Donald | 19c | 54.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 803 | 41.8%336 W · 467 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Darwin Blanch | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 527 | 50.3%265 W · 262 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0a…36d8backed Darwin Blanch | 75c | 39.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 382 | 62.3%238 W · 144 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…7159backed Matthew William Donald | 26c | 38.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 903 | 40.2%363 W · 540 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4350…4bbabacked Darwin Blanch | 75c | 35.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 306 | 72.9%223 W · 83 L | +27.2wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c7…1400backed Darwin Blanch | 76c | 35.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -5.7wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…c990backed Darwin Blanch | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 85 | 72.9%62 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ac…8206backed Darwin Blanch | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…d39ebacked Darwin Blanch | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mauthausen: Darwin Blanch vs Matthew William Donaldthis page
- Set 1 Winner: Blanch vs DonaldBlanch won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.