Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Execration (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x426f7eaf7f44160d08d761a8f54b87d12fb7b5cb675d029f28a0cab1c0e11423
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Execration
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Execration | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.77 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Execration | 14c | 1,513$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.56 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 29cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Execration | 19c | 1,293$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.59 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Execration | 13c | 971.74$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.58 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Execration | 19c | 961$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.14 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Execration | 19c | 900.19$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.26 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Execration | 20c | 754$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.78 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Execration | 17c | 468.32$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.52 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Execration | 21c | 265$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Execration | 13c | 216.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed Execration | 11c | 209.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1698…68e8backed Team Falcons | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons | 80c | 160$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Execration | 14c | 114.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Execration | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Execration | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed Execration | 21c | 85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Execration | 20c | 78.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Execration | 20c | 76.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Team Falcons | 80c | 66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 141 | 21.3%30 W · 111 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…f448backed Team Falcons | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Team Falcons | 80c | 61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.44 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Falcons | 79c | 56.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…34babacked Team Falcons | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Team Falcons | 78c | 38.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Team Falcons | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc623…9c7dbacked Team Falcons | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 367 | 61%224 W · 143 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Execration (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Execration - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Execration - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.