Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Execration - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3576f0df2afeaf00957a979b7cc55513266c4e304103f2ff2cd68f94ebf7e73
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Execration
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,965
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,965 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Execration | 19c | 4,003$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.74 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Execration | 21c | 3,582$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.72 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f52…c525backed Team Falcons | 77c | 2,597$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.4 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Falcons | 77c | 2,597$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.4 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Execration | 23c | 2,107$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.5 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Execration | 18c | 1,398$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.22 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Execration | 29c | 1,023$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.69 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Execration | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons | 74c | 594.63$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.95 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad6…a93cbacked Execration | 19c | 564$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Execration | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Execration | 16c | 424.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Execration | 23c | 383.16$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.54 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6998…ae95backed Execration | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 168 | 21.4%36 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Execration | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…554cbacked Execration | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfebc…0194backed Team Falcons | 80c | 199.98$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…2c41backed Team Falcons | 75c | 170.16$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Execration | 16c | 124.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Execration | 13c | 118.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2e…439cbacked Execration | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Team Falcons | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…1c67backed Team Falcons | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Execration | 18c | 75.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Team Falcons | 79c | 75.31$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…eca9backed Team Falcons | 78c | 67.12$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Execration | 24c | 45.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 203 | 49.8%101 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Falcons | 77c | 31.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Execration - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Execration (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group BTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Execration - Game 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.