Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Execration - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7a12b60c9e5e7597dce2df5a45cd4e4530b5ddc1f8539905a0285f576a3a89d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Execration
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Execration | 34c | 23,341$7,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,867.74 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Falcons | 79c | 15,849$12,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,371.94 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Team Falcons | 66c | 14,562$9,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,951.03 | 198 | 47%93 W · 105 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Execration | 34c | 5,000$1,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.49 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Execration | 22c | 4,556$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.91 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Execration | 22c | 3,954$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.49 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Execration | 23c | 3,399$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.03 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Falcons | 79c | 3,170$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.44 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…b5c4backed Execration | 30c | 2,019$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 159 | 46.5%74 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons | 73c | 1,284$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.69 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Team Falcons | 75c | 1,100$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.59 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ff…a353backed Team Falcons | 79c | 1,090$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.2 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -6.4wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Team Falcons | 71c | 784.53$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.51 | 134 | 55.2%74 W · 60 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…5f8fbacked Execration | 29c | 784.53$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.51 | 295 | 48.5%143 W · 152 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Execration | 17c | 657.76$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.48 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Execration | 18c | 617.81$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.51 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Team Falcons | 74c | 592.51$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.51 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad6…a93cbacked Execration | 14c | 581.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons | 75c | 532.45$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.97 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…951cbacked Team Falcons | 79c | 527.71$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.56 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Execration | 7c | 520$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ffc…8967backed Execration | 17c | 500$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Execration | 22c | 465$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Team Falcons | 66c | 463$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.43 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40a2…19c9backed Team Falcons | 70c | 410$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Execration | 10c | 399.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…d12fbacked Team Falcons | 80c | 355.33$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.33 | 280 | 62.9%176 W · 104 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…c499backed Execration | 25c | 320$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -5.6wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Team Falcons | 75c | 316.67$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Execration | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Falcons | 70c | 270.27$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.37 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Execration | 28c | 247.29$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.23 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Team Falcons | 73c | 230$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Execration | 16c | 223.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed Team Falcons | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 136 | 57.4%78 W · 58 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Execration | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Team Falcons | 78c | 193.28$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.52 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…ed28backed Execration | 20c | 167$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 605 | 52.6%318 W · 287 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Team Falcons | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x602a…9a6ebacked Team Falcons | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfebc…0194backed Team Falcons | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Execration | 31c | 144$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c7…24c2backed Team Falcons | 77c | 134.32$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 130 | 61.5%80 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0e…8763backed Execration | 23c | 130$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6795…4a4cbacked Execration | 18c | 128.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb22f…804dbacked Team Falcons | 79c | 122.79$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Falcons | 71c | 117.37$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…a8b3backed Execration | 23c | 108.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 595 | 56.6%337 W · 258 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Execration | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Team Falcons | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed Execration | 26c | 98.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Execration | 21c | 94.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Execration | 21c | 82.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…04e9backed Team Falcons | 80c | 58.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 341 | 52.2%178 W · 163 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0e…eca9backed Team Falcons | 73c | 52.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Execration | 31c | 51.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Team Falcons | 66c | 42.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 203 | 49.8%101 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…21d9backed Team Falcons | 70c | 32.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf938…1249backed Team Falcons | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 173 | 60.7%105 W · 68 L | -13.6wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…0143backed Team Falcons | 74c | 17.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…474dbacked Team Falcons | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Execration - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Execration (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group BTeam Falcons won
- Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Execration - Game 2 WinnerTeam Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.