Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs RE.Arise - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42753789b306e066cb2a0405c41615651d5cda7e37edb7fda3c5df080e734b57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof Spirit Academy, RE.Arise
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfab…f067backed RE.Arise | 77c | 1,791$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.95 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed RE.Arise | 31c | 1,700$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.99 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked RE.Arise | 9c | 804.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Spirit Academy | 44c | 775.24$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.83 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Spirit Academy | 16c | 585.36$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.7 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Spirit Academy | 29c | 523.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.31 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c6…dcacbacked RE.Arise | 43c | 480$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.15 | 106 | 53.8%57 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Spirit Academy | 25c | 353.33$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked RE.Arise | 14c | 308.21$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked Spirit Academy | 44c | 266$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.05 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed RE.Arise | 25c | 262$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.99 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Spirit Academy | 43c | 259.23$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.89 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48f7…3aebbacked RE.Arise | 74c | 236.19$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.78 | 668 | 48.5%324 W · 344 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Spirit Academy | 54c | 207.77$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.59 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Spirit Academy | 44c | 206$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.92 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Spirit Academy | 40c | 175$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.25 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Spirit Academy | 24c | 171.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.25 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked RE.Arise | 34c | 164.36$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcef…fd7fbacked Spirit Academy | 67c | 116$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked RE.Arise | 29c | 111.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…f518backed Spirit Academy | 52c | 107.69$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.69 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed Spirit Academy | 57c | 96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.54 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked RE.Arise | 33c | 83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6858…a7febacked RE.Arise | 51c | 71.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…5d9fbacked Spirit Academy | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed RE.Arise | 17c | 66.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked RE.Arise | 51c | 59.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Spirit Academy | 38c | 57.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked RE.Arise | 38c | 57.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked RE.Arise | 24c | 54.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Spirit Academy | 26c | 49.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Spirit Academy | 49c | 40.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed Spirit Academy | 46c | 37.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked RE.Arise | 59c | 34.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed Spirit Academy | 71c | 31.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Spirit Academy | 49c | 30.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c62…f73cbacked RE.Arise | 80c | 24.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Spirit Academy | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked RE.Arise | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed RE.Arise | 61c | 17.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs RE.Arise - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs RE.Arise (BO3) - European Pro League Group ASpirit Academy won
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs RE.Arise - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
- Game Handicap: RE.Arise (-1.5) vs Spirit Academy (+1.5)Spirit Academy won
- Game Handicap: TS.A (-1.5) vs RE.Arise (+1.5)Spirit Academy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.