TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs RE.Arise - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Spirit Academyof Spirit Academy, RE.Arise
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,026
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$47,577

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,026 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf3ce…a57abacked Spirit Academy44c4,206$1,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,360.661,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed RE.Arise14c2,300$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.9951544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked RE.Arise56c1,575$879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.1779859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked RE.Arise53c1,468$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.1132756.9%186 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed RE.Arise28c1,419$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.8748057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81c3…d67dbacked Spirit Academy70c1,373$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.947045.7%32 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed Spirit Academy35c1,212$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.2714825%37 W · 111 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb29f…45b5backed Spirit Academy49c1,000$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.195145.1%23 W · 28 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed RE.Arise54c999.98$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.8457449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xba57…1e84backed Spirit Academy28c724.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.1415050.7%76 W · 74 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Spirit Academy54c599.96$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.781,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked RE.Arise8c590.02$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0940534.6%140 W · 265 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked RE.Arise65c549.99$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.561057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e5…519dbacked RE.Arise76c543.31$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.2712764.6%82 W · 45 L-6.5wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x25c6…dcacbacked Spirit Academy55c420$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18910653.8%57 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed RE.Arise68c407.5$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.160251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71f5…4ccebacked RE.Arise52c370.38$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.3312432.3%40 W · 84 L-10.4wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked RE.Arise59c362.06$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.0417965.4%117 W · 62 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked RE.Arise62c336.15$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.0289238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed RE.Arise61c328.25$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Spirit Academy31c327.89$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.5295342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x222b…d3fdbacked Spirit Academy40c303$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.4366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+98%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed RE.Arise66c299.99$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.9925639.5%101 W · 155 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked RE.Arise58c267.54$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.1235960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked RE.Arise42c258.22$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2713647.1%64 W · 72 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-21.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1c…90d2backed RE.Arise75c247.09$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.25728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick62cpaid-59.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x13ee…01aebacked RE.Arise45c242.99$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.346744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked RE.Arise36c241.1$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.321,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa917…4e8dbacked Spirit Academy46c213.99$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.553237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked RE.Arise64c213.82$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.4366848.5%324 W · 344 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed RE.Arise43c199$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9358943%253 W · 336 L-25.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a40…f518backed RE.Arise55c191.2$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10615437%57 W · 97 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Spirit Academy39c191.1$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.5769132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf461…9ef2backed Spirit Academy32c191$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.228164.2%52 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f40…c8ffbacked Spirit Academy52c190.01$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.2831052.6%163 W · 147 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb8e…08c1backed RE.Arise39c189$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5364547.8%308 W · 337 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x824b…8386backed RE.Arise54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015848.1%76 W · 82 L-13.8wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-21.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3a12…a9a7backed RE.Arise40c175.08$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.153928.2%11 W · 28 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-24.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed RE.Arise41c159.6$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4427636.2%100 W · 176 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb7e0…0d8abacked RE.Arise63c156.5$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6626958.7%158 W · 111 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa36b…f273backed Spirit Academy42c150.95$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.55450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30db…07c3backed Spirit Academy39c123.82$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5354445.8%249 W · 295 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked RE.Arise38c118.34$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4944049.3%217 W · 223 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed Spirit Academy43c113.98$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.974459.1%26 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked RE.Arise40c110$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4558746.5%273 W · 314 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3066…693abacked RE.Arise50c109.88$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5554648.5%265 W · 281 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1982…bc7bbacked RE.Arise45c108.8$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9610244.1%45 W · 57 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked RE.Arise51c105.7$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9730146.2%139 W · 162 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked RE.Arise15c103$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9268345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…8e7ebacked Spirit Academy47c101.38$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7333854.1%183 W · 155 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked RE.Arise50c94.65$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.51,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6c6…933abacked Spirit Academy48c93.96$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9612868%87 W · 41 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f85…e91abacked Spirit Academy33c89.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5611452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid0%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x257c…a408backed RE.Arise24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Spirit Academy54c82$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.756945.2%257 W · 312 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked RE.Arise47c73.42$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.811,70241.2%701 W · 1,001 L-44.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Spirit Academy50c72.98$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.581345.1%367 W · 446 L-26.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee59…e42abacked Spirit Academy42c68.92$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.9728846.9%135 W · 153 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x113f…ae4dbacked RE.Arise21c66.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.263441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68c0…c1fbbacked RE.Arise75c65$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.64772.3%34 W · 13 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Spirit Academy30c64.96$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.5216553.3%88 W · 77 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked RE.Arise45c64.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.131,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…ef1cbacked Spirit Academy37c61.32$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6322740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7415…b585backed Spirit Academy35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.142334.8%8 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed RE.Arise37c55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5350032.2%161 W · 339 L-47.1wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Spirit Academy59c54.5$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.343067%288 W · 142 L+31.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3d94…cc42backed Spirit Academy20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+28.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a1e…8dadbacked Spirit Academy78c49.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed RE.Arise52c47.09$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4819449%95 W · 99 L+11.8wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Spirit Academy43c47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7947358.6%277 W · 196 L+25.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked RE.Arise45c43.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.443286.4%21 W · 307 L-102.4wins-0.31per pick38cpaid-72.6%equal weight18-0.29 edge/pick
0x53d6…c414backed RE.Arise64c40.78$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265360.4%32 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed RE.Arise41c36.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0965647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9806…2e4ebacked Spirit Academy46c35.26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.071070%7 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+64.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Spirit Academy38c35$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8122240.1%89 W · 133 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-24.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa78e…7cbcbacked Spirit Academy46c34.78$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.789337.6%35 W · 58 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7560…1ee1backed Spirit Academy32c32.75$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.2721133.6%71 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9280…4d46backed Spirit Academy44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7dc…4f6ebacked RE.Arise65c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.56162.3%38 W · 23 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b90…08e7backed RE.Arise63c27.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2738244.5%170 W · 212 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked RE.Arise57c26.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3730251.7%156 W · 146 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bda…c134backed Spirit Academy59c25.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.426450%32 W · 32 L-8.4wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-26.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6b23…331cbacked RE.Arise66c22.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511169.4%77 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1791…3e87backed Spirit Academy53c22.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4914652.1%76 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ddd…6144backed RE.Arise67c16.44$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+26.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.