Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x428046310a7a82ac4bc7ff56e35e38f8870a5e2421b75e63d62e0a0357bddd38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Virtus.pro, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Virtus.pro | 49c | 12,973$6,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,364.88 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 5,015$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,514.63 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…39dabacked Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 2,159$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.24 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 1,724$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.08 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Nigma Galaxy | 56c | 1,555$877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.75 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 1,534$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 800$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Virtus.pro | 57c | 542.45$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.93 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed Nigma Galaxy | 43c | 419.82$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.3 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Virtus.pro | 49c | 213.8$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.76 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x687c…8c91backed Virtus.pro | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 196.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.43 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…dda0backed Nigma Galaxy | 55c | 181.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.79 | 292 | 45.9%134 W · 158 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 173.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.45 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 52c | 150.13$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Virtus.pro | 45c | 144.27$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 176 | 51.1%90 W · 86 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Nigma Galaxy | 61c | 132.86$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.39 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Virtus.pro | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2e…44c3backed Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Virtus.pro | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7eebbacked Virtus.pro | 61c | 95.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Virtus.pro | 43c | 72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…fbf2backed Nigma Galaxy | 51c | 62.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Nigma Galaxy | 57c | 54.46$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2249…3005backed Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Nigma Galaxy | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Nigma Galaxy | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked Virtus.pro | 33c | 42.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 46 | 26.1%12 W · 34 L | -6.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeefb…d11fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 48c | 41.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Nigma Galaxy | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Nigma Galaxy | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Virtus.pro | 52c | 37.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Nigma Galaxy | 52c | 34.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Virtus.pro | 57c | 34.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed Nigma Galaxy | 44c | 31.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…fd20backed Virtus.pro | 78c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Nigma Galaxy | 50c | 20.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec48…d04cbacked Virtus.pro | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x425f…0f7abacked Virtus.pro | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37dd…28e0backed Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerVirtus.pro won
- Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.