Olympics · resolved market
Japan wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42d80e1a69d057b92b7489d04e43f184c8e26361b833b66f9013aa466f423fa3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,294,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $789,836
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,294,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1189…a9e0backed Yes | 0c | 134,431$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…d5f8backed Yes | 0c | 120,805$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.81 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 0c | 98,991$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.48 | 83 | 9.6%8 W · 75 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c05…38c6backed Yes | 0c | 46,795$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…f234backed Yes | 0c | 30,002$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8a…1120backed Yes | 0c | 27,940$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa878…27bebacked Yes | 0c | 21,243$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc955…2507backed Yes | 0c | 18,711$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c2…4c94backed Yes | 0c | 16,316$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 0c | 14,022$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x317b…8e90backed Yes | 1c | 13,807$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe02…370cbacked Yes | 0c | 13,100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…2ba8backed Yes | 0c | 12,600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…1b8bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 11,222$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5b…fe77backed Yes | 0c | 8,490$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x376b…8a13backed Yes | 0c | 7,714$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b01…5c7fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,397$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab1…b2b1backed Yes | 0c | 6,725$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbb…d5a4backed Yes | 0c | 6,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51ac…17eabacked Yes | 0c | 6,115$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d04…bfd6backed Yes | 0c | 6,007$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a00…4dccbacked Yes | 0c | 5,320$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe86…d612backed Yes | 0c | 5,056$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff32…dc40backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…b98bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,073$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed Yes | 0c | 3,750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62b9…818ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,295$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4237…11d3backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88bd…4c17backed Yes | 1c | 2,071$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Japan wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?this page
- Another country wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?No won
- China wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?No won
- France wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?No won
- Great Britain wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?No won
- USA wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.