Chess · resolved market
Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42e604bb984e006888ee5017288a7e627e764ca2376987652d4f7d6201ca38fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25fd…11eabacked Yes | 0c | 14,101$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…3048backed No | 66c | 10,600$6,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,603.99 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes | 34c | 6,377$2,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,164.82 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4815…8ba4backed Yes | 35c | 4,941$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,729.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…00c9backed No | 65c | 2,449$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.49 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55e2…5fc9backed No | 73c | 2,167$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.27 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a74…312fbacked Yes | 34c | 1,977$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes | 35c | 1,057$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 65c | 1,006$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.59 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2dc…b624backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a0…2a86backed Yes | 33c | 398.46$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +174.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6755…c7b3backed No | 64c | 259.99$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 190$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.47 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 67c | 171.47$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Yes | 34c | 147$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7667…fad9backed Yes | 35c | 146.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd703…b62ebacked No | 64c | 108.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce3…f779backed No | 67c | 103.24$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b4…580dbacked Yes | 34c | 84.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa42…b9ebbacked Yes | 36c | 80.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef46…f872backed Yes | 35c | 74.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…e2eebacked Yes | 35c | 68.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked No | 67c | 58.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cad…9ca5backed Yes | 34c | 53.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…f7b2backed Yes | 36c | 51.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e9…b13abacked No | 61c | 50.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d5…deefbacked Yes | 36c | 44.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f42…bf3bbacked Yes | 35c | 41.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…9592backed No | 61c | 39.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8773…4cd9backed Yes | 48c | 36.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 68c | 20.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Javokhir Sindarov win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?this page
- Will Andrey Esipenko vs. Javokhir Sindarov end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Andrey Esipenko win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.