Asian League · resolved market
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42ebee5721d4d8f204b417cea65622a99b3bacd0e0b9ce27c18d69e94fdc6892
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x60f6…a196backed Under | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…e279backed Under | 0c | 5,524$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 71c | 4,159$2,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.83 | 1,707 | 50.6%863 W · 844 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 29c | 4,027$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.99 | 2,467 | 40.3%993 W · 1,474 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 73c | 2,802$2,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.3 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 20c | 2,553$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.91 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 64c | 1,136$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.58 | 2,499 | 42.3%1,057 W · 1,442 L | +52.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 29c | 1,010$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.9 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 20c | 735.66$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.17 | 149 | 48.3%72 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 72c | 446$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 28c | 359.62$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed Under | 44c | 264.18$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.32 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88cb…d3a2backed Over | 77c | 239.54$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Under | 46c | 217.76$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 18c | 193.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 708 | 42.5%301 W · 407 L | -26.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe12…728fbacked Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 70c | 152.81$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 33c | 139.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 34c | 129.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 30c | 119.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 192 | 61.5%118 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 45c | 107.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.19 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 73c | 91.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 1,959 | 54.6%1,069 W · 890 L | +36.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 30c | 74.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 236 | 60.2%142 W · 94 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Under | 28c | 70.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…a82abacked Under | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 73c | 48.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 237 | 61.6%146 W · 91 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 71c | 37.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 357 | 51%182 W · 175 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63fc…4a6cbacked Over | 57c | 36.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Under | 29c | 34.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 58c | 32.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Over | 68c | 24.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6503…b8b6backed Over | 72c | 23.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 67c | 19.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 562 | 45.4%255 W · 307 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed Over | 73c | 16.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Over | 70c | 16.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: Beijing Guoan FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Zhejiang Zhiye FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Zhejiang Zhiye FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.