Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42f7b519579f72292293345ddd2a22b88b7d1f775238ab122dc05dff82970bc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 75c | 344.58$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 257.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 195.14$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 174.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.44 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 74c | 172.75$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.21 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…2978backed Yes | 30c | 149.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 73 | 19.2%14 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 149.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.75 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc744…955cbacked No | 46c | 149.38$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 28c | 147.35$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.62 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 32c | 142.78$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 35c | 142.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.56 | 330 | 18.8%62 W · 268 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 26c | 136.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 25c | 113.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 112.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 52c | 111.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.03 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 101.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.79 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 38c | 96.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 13c | 95.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 80c | 95.54$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 44c | 95.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…78d0backed Yes | 66c | 82.27$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 78c | 78.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 47c | 75.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked No | 50c | 72.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa133…5fdcbacked Yes | 37c | 69.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 20c | 65.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 26c | 62.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.32 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 54c | 61.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 34c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 50c | 57.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 35c | 46.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 38c | 41.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee9…014bbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 30c | 37.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…7b0dbacked Yes | 33c | 37.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9588…45b9backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 68cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…295abacked No | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 42c | 34.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 64c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x67a6…8591backed Yes | 59c | 32.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +84.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 64c | 30.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa448…f55dbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.19per pick | 66cpaid | -27%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 58c | 28.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…5a62backed Yes | 70c | 27.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 60c | 22.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 47c | 21.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked No | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…9544backed Yes | 61c | 18.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf294…8ce1backed Yes | 65c | 16.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 68cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 77c | 16.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.