College Football · resolved market
Spread: Northwestern (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43009351d874e2ebbd6722a79d60f41de4791f1c9de68997437a8ebffbc155bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northwesternof Northwestern, Purdue Boilermakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Purdue Boilermakers | 52c | 16,361$8,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,544.24 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c81…e258backed Northwestern | 47c | 12,000$5,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,360 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Northwestern | 49c | 5,889$2,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,003.39 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf1…c324backed Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 3,200$1,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 56cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Purdue Boilermakers | 52c | 2,984$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,561.63 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Northwestern | 47c | 2,723$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.63 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Purdue Boilermakers | 28c | 2,620$721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.18 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Northwestern | 47c | 2,469$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.37 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Northwestern | 49c | 1,472$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750.85 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Northwestern | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Purdue Boilermakers | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Purdue Boilermakers | 52c | 969.29$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.03 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 794.34$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…46fcbacked Northwestern | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Purdue Boilermakers | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e0…a8e0backed Northwestern | 48c | 150$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 42cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Northwestern | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Purdue Boilermakers | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Purdue Boilermakers | 54c | 35.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…416abacked Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Purdue Boilermakers | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Northwestern (-3.5)this page
- Purdue Boilermakers vs. NorthwesternNorthwestern won
- Purdue Boilermakers vs. Northwestern: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Northwestern (-2.5)Northwestern won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.