NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43413a4571c6cd4633395069b75fc2e7a72a20aaf55919b6ebcda1dc057c76b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ducksof Avalanche, Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Ducks | 59c | 13,250$7,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,372.36 | 617 | 48.5%299 W · 318 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Avalanche | 40c | 8,489$3,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,413.15 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Ducks | 60c | 7,500$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Avalanche | 40c | 3,310$1,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Avalanche | 41c | 3,298$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,352 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Avalanche | 40c | 1,822$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.69 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -17.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Avalanche | 41c | 1,800$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d2…4c2cbacked Avalanche | 40c | 1,688$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Ducks | 60c | 800$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Avalanche | 40c | 456.64$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.62 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Avalanche | 41c | 341.46$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Avalanche | 40c | 275$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Ducks | 62c | 249.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Ducks | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc5…e2afbacked Avalanche | 40c | 124.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Ducks | 61c | 105$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.95 | 135 | 57.8%78 W · 57 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Avalanche | 38c | 94.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Avalanche | 38c | 61.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa63c…b262backed Ducks | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Ducks | 80c | 57.37$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf5…aaa3backed Avalanche | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Avalanche | 41c | 35.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 164 | 63.4%104 W · 60 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Avalanche | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f7…c7fabacked Avalanche | 38c | 28.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.26per pick | 53cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)this page
- Ducks vs. AvalancheDucks won
- Ducks vs. Avalanche: O/U 6.5Under won
- Ducks vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.