Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x437c31279561ab69541bd1e0d6840a77420729f9e83c4c669be9921424d3e6dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cerundoloof Nakashima, Cerundolo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3d2…fe85backed Nakashima | 38c | 1,930$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.35 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Nakashima | 38c | 1,295$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.66 | 2,150 | 54.1%1,164 W · 986 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cerundolo | 62c | 847$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.86 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Cerundolo | 61c | 389$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.04 | 177 | 58.8%104 W · 73 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Cerundolo | 62c | 300.7$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.27 | 860 | 50.1%431 W · 429 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Nakashima | 5c | 185.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 1,381 | 16.4%227 W · 1,154 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…0436backed Cerundolo | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…049abacked Cerundolo | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Cerundolo | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 897 | 54.6%490 W · 407 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Cerundolo | 62c | 125.64$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c3…fd98backed Cerundolo | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Cerundolo | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 418 | 51.7%216 W · 202 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…48f7backed Cerundolo | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Cerundolo | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 962 | 55.8%537 W · 425 L | +21.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd82…6a10backed Cerundolo | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 316 | 57.3%181 W · 135 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Cerundolo | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 533 | 56.7%302 W · 231 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc06b…76ddbacked Cerundolo | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2e…9d98backed Cerundolo | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Cerundolo | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Cerundolo | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Cerundolo | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 967 | 55%532 W · 435 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9dd…13a2backed Cerundolo | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 245 | 57.6%141 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Cerundolo | 62c | 45.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +17.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Cerundolo | 62c | 36.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 956 | 58.2%556 W · 400 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Cerundolo | 62c | 35.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8d…4f5cbacked Cerundolo | 62c | 34.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…3273backed Cerundolo | 61c | 32.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Cerundolo | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 3,987 | 45.5%1,816 W · 2,171 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4846…32e0backed Nakashima | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Cerundolo | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 129 | 45.7%59 W · 70 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Cerundolo | 62c | 23.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 595 | 65.4%389 W · 206 L | +17.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Nakashima | 75c | 20.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 2,433 | 50.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L | +81.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Cerundolo | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2638…8e2dbacked Cerundolo | 61c | 19.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 316 | 57%180 W · 136 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Cerundolo | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 335 | 50.1%168 W · 167 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5)this page
- HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco CerundoloFrancisco Cerundolo won
- Nakashima vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Nakashima vs. Cerundolo: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Set 1 Winner: Nakashima vs CerundoloNakashima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.