World Politics · resolved market
Will PAP win less than 75 seats in the Singapore election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43a87ac6b9883bac7d0ab54aabdcfe78ebd97f7a16d3f29523bc2c7c14ea2fc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c6e…3a3ebacked Yes | 4c | 6,176$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 5,783$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.37 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…ea1abacked Yes | 8c | 5,449$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…171fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,029$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 3c | 3,319$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.98 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 2c | 3,300$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9949…3f3bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,854$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…fe29backed Yes | 17c | 1,434$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e33…2f33backed Yes | 7c | 1,359$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa101…9dcfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,166$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3b…a2d3backed Yes | 10c | 1,122$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 5c | 1,001$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +210.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9f…9a20backed Yes | 4c | 990.08$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…cb09backed Yes | 5c | 819.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9b…bbcabacked Yes | 6c | 809.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c2…3019backed Yes | 4c | 757.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ed…edcbbacked Yes | 15c | 666.33$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe112…987cbacked Yes | 4c | 630$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +215.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9d…f915backed Yes | 7c | 613.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 523.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 468$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7b…9cd5backed Yes | 10c | 391.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf074…2fd0backed Yes | 5c | 381.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 5c | 334.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…d084backed Yes | 10c | 302.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03a8…46b2backed Yes | 8c | 196.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…7a80backed Yes | 8c | 178.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…6d2bbacked Yes | 8c | 155.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…b266backed Yes | 6c | 153.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PAP win less than 75 seats in the Singapore election?this page
- Will PAP win 90 or more seats in the Singapore election?No won
- Will PAP win between 75 and 77 seats in the Singapore election?No won
- Will PAP win between 78 and 80 seats in the Singapore election?No won
- Will PAP win between 81 and 83 seats in the Singapore election?No won
- Will PAP win between 84 and 86 seats in the Singapore election?No won
- Will PAP win between 87 and 89 seats in the Singapore election?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.