World Politics · resolved market
Will PAP win between 78 and 80 seats in the Singapore election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb7e26a8716a8ed4016cdc1184ac5017d1bf3add228742d9f3be3d9ff3304e08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 3c | 6,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6e…3a3ebacked Yes | 12c | 1,921$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Yes | 13c | 999.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2db7…e4d6backed Yes | 29c | 865.05$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a3…9dcdbacked Yes | 15c | 582.86$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4804…5375backed Yes | 23c | 565.22$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfc…fe29backed Yes | 30c | 406.52$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e33…2f33backed Yes | 20c | 364.7$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 322.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…ea1abacked Yes | 22c | 306.38$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da7…e0c9backed Yes | 18c | 279.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…b266backed Yes | 16c | 272.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7f…0b43backed Yes | 19c | 267.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…7a80backed Yes | 19c | 267.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 12c | 252.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 213.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9d…f915backed Yes | 12c | 205.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51d…cb09backed Yes | 17c | 117.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cf…a10abacked Yes | 20c | 100.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ea…8caabacked Yes | 11c | 98.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 92.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…2358backed Yes | 29c | 86.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…6d4fbacked Yes | 23c | 78.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f3…9199backed Yes | 21c | 70.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9914backed Yes | 29c | 69.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…496abacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510d…659bbacked Yes | 29c | 56.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PAP win between 78 and 80 seats in the Singapore election?this page
- Will PAP win 90 or more seats in the Singapore election?No won
- Will PAP win between 75 and 77 seats in the Singapore election?No won
- Will PAP win between 81 and 83 seats in the Singapore election?No won
- Will PAP win between 84 and 86 seats in the Singapore election?No won
- Will PAP win between 87 and 89 seats in the Singapore election?Yes won
- Will PAP win less than 75 seats in the Singapore election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.