World Politics · resolved market
Will PAP win between 87 and 89 seats in the Singapore election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fd0e9147fcacd1efe535a21d1b985b312247166b48131579b73cdb8c011a47e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,544
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,544 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8d3…343dbacked Yes | 77c | 4,905$3,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a3…9dcdbacked Yes | 23c | 4,432$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,409.45 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 22c | 4,110$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$904.11 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…c381backed Yes | 21c | 4,042$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,190.39 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31f7…c122backed Yes | 27c | 2,774$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,021.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +268.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 5c | 620.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…f8e8backed Yes | 34c | 589.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 8c | 444.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 114 | 35.1%40 W · 74 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe112…987cbacked Yes | 11c | 419.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +215.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8079…b9cbbacked Yes | 15c | 352.91$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…a3bebacked Yes | 18c | 326.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +172.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0896…564ebacked No | 78c | 301$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 40c | 295$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.78 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1da7…e0c9backed Yes | 25c | 180.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87cd…6f2abacked No | 76c | 178.04$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.45 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 76c | 174.39$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.68 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef7…3b22backed Yes | 11c | 137.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 78c | 115$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 79c | 96.77$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…de10backed Yes | 22c | 89.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 77.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd3…1b76backed Yes | 27c | 75.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c25…fe7ebacked Yes | 28c | 71.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 77c | 50.71$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed Yes | 23c | 45.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +343.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x641e…aeb7backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd4…9914backed Yes | 32c | 31.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PAP win between 87 and 89 seats in the Singapore election?this page
- Will PAP win 90 or more seats in the Singapore election?No won
- Will PAP win between 75 and 77 seats in the Singapore election?No won
- Will PAP win between 78 and 80 seats in the Singapore election?No won
- Will PAP win between 81 and 83 seats in the Singapore election?No won
- Will PAP win between 84 and 86 seats in the Singapore election?No won
- Will PAP win less than 75 seats in the Singapore election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.