World Politics · resolved market
Will PAP win between 84 and 86 seats in the Singapore election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28bb6256bf1f7a0726e62c97d1c3bc4a19548f5312cd211dd7b33631322d987c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,495
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,495 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe214…c5cebacked Yes | 72c | 6,761$4,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,837.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…c381backed Yes | 19c | 6,241$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.42 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 25c | 3,520$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,636.22 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x0896…564ebacked Yes | 22c | 2,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57a3…9dcdbacked Yes | 26c | 1,449$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8079…b9cbbacked Yes | 21c | 458$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…b694backed Yes | 28c | 381.14$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 29c | 351.36$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe306…d100backed Yes | 8c | 340$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe621…bc8ebacked Yes | 22c | 319.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…b266backed Yes | 24c | 258.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 220$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…b86dbacked Yes | 25c | 167.79$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 140.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6a…4846backed No | 64c | 127.77$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 16 | 93.8%15 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 74cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1da7…e0c9backed Yes | 29c | 124.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…2ae8backed No | 44c | 105$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…687abacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…e512backed Yes | 17c | 84.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd3…1b76backed Yes | 25c | 81.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 57c | 76.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c25…fe7ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x980a…b0c0backed Yes | 27c | 63.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54c…3b95backed Yes | 35c | 56.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 23c | 48.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x641e…aeb7backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will PAP win between 84 and 86 seats in the Singapore election?this page
- Will PAP win 90 or more seats in the Singapore election?No won
- Will PAP win between 75 and 77 seats in the Singapore election?No won
- Will PAP win between 78 and 80 seats in the Singapore election?No won
- Will PAP win between 81 and 83 seats in the Singapore election?No won
- Will PAP win between 87 and 89 seats in the Singapore election?Yes won
- Will PAP win less than 75 seats in the Singapore election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.