Token Launches · resolved market
Will $DADDY hit $500m FDV by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43af485dd572561365e98f4257b7a80d2fd514ef56ac5addcfbf98b55b05b93b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,981
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,049$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdf…1561backed Yes | 4c | 369.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 18c | 325.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 67 | 13.4%9 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…b637backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9230…07d4backed Yes | 28c | 88.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 73c | 65.85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 25c | 49.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20fa…a31fbacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.