Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-05-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43b4753dc6983a32c25295cf44e28ff1b35f5006359555f895e7f5cb1d7b158b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 12c | 4,271$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.09 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 9c | 1,802$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 35c | 1,200$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 65c | 1,060$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Yes | 27c | 631.38$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.19 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 438.65$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.43 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 28c | 385.4$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.16 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…55bebacked No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 27c | 265.73$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.75 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 73c | 242.52$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 27c | 120$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 73c | 109.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 106.33$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 101.01$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a7…3fb0backed Yes | 26c | 45.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -73%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…a4e2backed Yes | 28c | 41.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea20…af4cbacked No | 73c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-05-17?this page
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-05-17?Yes won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.