Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-05-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd3d008be03ca0a5676a9812e6597fe4b0019640f6cb69de86638914ba9a2b9d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 76c | 21,228$16,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,195.8 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 50c | 10,803$5,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,401.75 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 25c | 5,649$1,385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385.3 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 35c | 4,631$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.91 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 71c | 3,897$2,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.65 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9772…4867backed Yes | 74c | 2,689$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 41c | 1,338$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.83 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 60c | 1,200$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 40c | 1,086$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$651.6 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 25c | 918.67$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.22 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 50c | 900$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 50c | 898.01$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.1 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x196b…4151backed No | 2c | 749.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 25c | 669.37$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 50c | 488$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked No | 52c | 445.34$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes | 52c | 384.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.54 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +12.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a7…3fb0backed No | 16c | 310$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -73%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 7c | 274.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 337 | 37.4%126 W · 211 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 46c | 260$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.07 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 59c | 222.5$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.28 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 50c | 210$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 50c | 163$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Yes | 78c | 128.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.43 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 34c | 120.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 50c | 120$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed No | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed No | 27c | 108.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 50c | 104.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +74.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb1…fa48backed No | 52c | 96.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed No | 28c | 89.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Yes | 72c | 89$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed No | 59c | 83.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed No | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 49c | 71.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 24c | 71.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…7248backed Yes | 72c | 66.28$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…da09backed Yes | 72c | 64.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10fd…633bbacked Yes | 49c | 64.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 50c | 50.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 24c | 46.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed No | 56c | 37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Yes | 75c | 33.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +28%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 43c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf17e…b9d1backed Yes | 74c | 27.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed Yes | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Yes | 77c | 22.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a0…6e74backed Yes | 72c | 17.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-05-17?this page
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07 end in a draw?No won
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-05-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.