Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43b514ce7fb8ec3d541a5bb174743d483bf8a92c3e03a9033270db414ee4309a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,732
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,732 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 1c | 1,799$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 2c | 680$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 26c | 372.01$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.31 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21fb…842cbacked No | 5c | 306.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 34c | 219.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.51 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00b2…3ef1backed No | 23c | 216.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc86d…2e76backed No | 34c | 201.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 75c | 191.02$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 66c | 158.25$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 67c | 150.57$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 41c | 138.69$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 132.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.22 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 10c | 112.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 13c | 102.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x851d…a743backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 27c | 89.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 70c | 68.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.86 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 58.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…00a7backed Yes | 33c | 43.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 47c | 41.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 68c | 39.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…2b19backed No | 70c | 37.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 52c | 28.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 64c | 28.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9217…076abacked No | 41c | 25.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…80d8backed No | 69c | 23.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 78c | 21.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1e07backed No | 59c | 18.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 70c | 18.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 74c | 17.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90e4…71f0backed Yes | 78c | 15.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 73c | 14.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0381backed Yes | 78c | 12.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 21°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on May 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.