NFL · resolved market
Falcons vs. Jaguars
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43b923284854c7a6b56dd88b855363155c228b6442d1faea064f6daa58c287df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jaguarsof Falcons, Jaguars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Falcons | 18c | 4,160$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.44 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Jaguars | 76c | 1,420$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.22 | 251 | 37.5%94 W · 157 L | -18.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Falcons | 9c | 768$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 217 | 13.8%30 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbb…ef6cbacked Falcons | 27c | 741.76$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84de…b018backed Falcons | 29c | 582.71$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…8839backed Jaguars | 75c | 545.28$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.28 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Falcons | 10c | 538.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Jaguars | 74c | 499.99$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc8…a401backed Falcons | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +141.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…1e98backed Falcons | 15c | 340.55$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Falcons | 26c | 263.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Jaguars | 74c | 240$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…261fbacked Falcons | 27c | 236.22$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Jaguars | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90db…46cbbacked Jaguars | 72c | 184$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce7…27e7backed Falcons | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Jaguars | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 186 | 45.7%85 W · 101 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Jaguars | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…4feabacked Jaguars | 74c | 135.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Falcons | 26c | 133.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…3bbdbacked Jaguars | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x021b…3c73backed Falcons | 27c | 129.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa03b…c3f1backed Jaguars | 72c | 119.89$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…51cfbacked Falcons | 11c | 116.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb818…bc56backed Falcons | 26c | 113.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Falcons | 25c | 112.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…5ef8backed Falcons | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…6239backed Jaguars | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5658…e253backed Falcons | 28c | 82.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67d…6ab3backed Jaguars | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Jaguars | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Falcons | 25c | 68.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Jaguars | 70c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…1de4backed Falcons | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 114 | 7.9%9 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…a490backed Jaguars | 75c | 23.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed Jaguars | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa939…adf2backed Jaguars | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…7c89backed Jaguars | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Jaguars | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.