CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43ce8e223f7f130da9afeac14bf64561b5e1c5a34bc530491f8008051006f042
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- THUNDER dOWNUNDERof Lynn Vision, THUNDER dOWNUNDER
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2529…548abacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 70c | 880.15$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.96 | 3,236 | 51.2%1,657 W · 1,579 L | +88.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Lynn Vision | 71c | 875.07$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.27 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 29c | 762.12$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.69 | 558 | 43.5%243 W · 315 L | -16.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lynn Vision | 45c | 708.59$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.47 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Lynn Vision | 39c | 545.23$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.81 | 5,034 | 37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L | -260.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8e…8e0dbacked Lynn Vision | 45c | 425$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.75 | 504 | 58.5%295 W · 209 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 48c | 356.42$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.34 | 2,605 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,234 L | +97.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Lynn Vision | 66c | 300$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 4c | 296.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.88 | 424 | 27.1%115 W · 309 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Lynn Vision | 72c | 272.37$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.06 | 2,030 | 53.7%1,091 W · 939 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1b…de56backed Lynn Vision | 33c | 250$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 56c | 210.61$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.81 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 18c | 147.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.58 | 260 | 48.8%127 W · 133 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…1650backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 27c | 145.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.69 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…a9b3backed Lynn Vision | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,178 | 54.5%642 W · 536 L | -36.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b50…1db2backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 28c | 121.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.48 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…4371backed Lynn Vision | 31c | 120$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 873 | 51.2%447 W · 426 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146c…b807backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 46c | 108.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 402 | 48.8%196 W · 206 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 29c | 102.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.88 | 503 | 41.6%209 W · 294 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 30c | 77.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 2,672 | 47.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L | -31.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 807 | 40.3%325 W · 482 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Lynn Vision | 41c | 59.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 1,325 | 44.1%584 W · 741 L | +44.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6219…72dabacked Lynn Vision | 29c | 58.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 50c | 37.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 353 | 42.8%151 W · 202 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Lynn Vision | 57c | 21.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 318 | 45.3%144 W · 174 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - Asian Champions League Group BLynn Vision won
- Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 2 WinnerLynn Vision won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.