Mls · resolved market
San Jose Earthquakes vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4441980ad5280b65a792d210da129c1ececb19852d6607dff66fa40e7ab3b2cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5952…db2fbacked Under | 10c | 5,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +58%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 35c | 578.14$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.35 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 65c | 127$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.06 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 65c | 126.72$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.35 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over | 65c | 107.69$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0962…6e40backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 64c | 69.08$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.87 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 65c | 64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 66c | 57.93$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 34c | 50.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 65c | 49.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8613…2f76backed Under | 36c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…e85dbacked Under | 36c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Over | 65c | 39.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…6e97backed Under | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Under | 35c | 30.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 65c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed Over | 65c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Minnesota United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Minnesota United FC: Minnesota United FC O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5)Minnesota United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.