Mls · resolved market
Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc6a829eb2e0ea306b5a359953934a690a998bf3e813532960fdc580f3a32d08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota United FCof Minnesota United FC, San Jose Earthquakes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,063
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed San Jose Earthquakes | 48c | 509.85$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.12 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Minnesota United FC | 61c | 491.8$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Jose Earthquakes | 25c | 482.53$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.72 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Minnesota United FC | 59c | 439.1$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.4 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Jose Earthquakes | 69c | 313$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.73 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Minnesota United FC | 31c | 276$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.92 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 49c | 239.4$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.43 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Minnesota United FC | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked San Jose Earthquakes | 39c | 121.35$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Minnesota United FC | 16c | 80$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Minnesota United FC | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 314 | 46.5%146 W · 168 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Minnesota United FC | 38c | 39.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 41c | 27.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked San Jose Earthquakes | 71c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Minnesota United FC | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Minnesota United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Minnesota United FC: Minnesota United FC O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5)Minnesota United FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.