Stocks · resolved market
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x445f0721884fa2e0008494ffcab8191d98dacc4a46c27efb4a06b6dd0f280fe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9283…449dbacked Yes | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bb…a429backed No | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed No | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 70c | 718.18$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.84 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…6f25backed Yes | 22c | 496.44$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +200.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked No | 25c | 413.03$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.26 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 60c | 211.33$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.48 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked No | 19c | 185.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 25c | 133.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x647a…be26backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 10c | 111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 232 | 45.3%105 W · 127 L | +15.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc273…51eabacked Yes | 74c | 99.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 98.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 18c | 88.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.51 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ea…a566backed Yes | 31c | 80.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +189.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e14…cb4cbacked Yes | 30c | 73.32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…acb1backed Yes | 33c | 62.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 76c | 60.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 71cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 50c | 25.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5abf…4f48backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of March?this page
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $250 end of March?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $260 end of March?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $270 end of March?Yes won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $290 end of March?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $300 end of March?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $310 end of March?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $320 end of March?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of March?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $340 end of March?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 end of March?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $360 end of March?No won
- Will Google (GOOGL) close above $370 end of March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.