Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 80-81°F on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x448f125c677f6193551a0ea648122258ed1049cd30a95d91621e61860f9f191f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 16c | 732.69$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.55 | 61 | 16.4%10 W · 51 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 17c | 579.35$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.35 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb612…fdd9backed Yes | 14c | 512$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.36 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 2c | 477.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 121 | 5%6 W · 115 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd8…8ee4backed Yes | 3c | 453$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 10c | 384.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 19c | 298.48$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 41c | 285$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.97 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…e730backed Yes | 10c | 128$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 186 | 40.3%75 W · 111 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…5839backed Yes | 11c | 124.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bff…7cd6backed No | 58c | 94.44$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 237 | 53.6%127 W · 110 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 29c | 69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb7…3f78backed Yes | 50c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 148 | 37.2%55 W · 93 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 54c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 73c | 41.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3053…ae11backed Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42d9…bc6dbacked Yes | 49c | 34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe41f…31abbacked Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e8…6202backed Yes | 48c | 23.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a50…4990backed No | 74c | 20.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 80-81°F on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 73°F or below on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 74-75°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 76-77°F on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 78-79°F on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 82-83°F on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.