Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44a46040eb7a46724278e70f9f2e171fc291157e9b1fda439ab6a3f22ec97ec6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mentality Monsterof Mentality Monster, Carstensz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabcc…10b4backed Mentality Monster | 47c | 991.65$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Mentality Monster | 53c | 661.05$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.05 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Carstensz | 50c | 586.95$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.59 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Carstensz | 46c | 496.05$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.3 | 354 | 30.5%108 W · 246 L | -27.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Carstensz | 71c | 383$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.44 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Carstensz | 18c | 272$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Mentality Monster | 48c | 207.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.47 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Carstensz | 52c | 150$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed Mentality Monster | 52c | 149.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Carstensz | 42c | 144.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Mentality Monster | 70c | 142.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Carstensz | 36c | 136.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 204 | 42.2%86 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Carstensz | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Carstensz | 45c | 94.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcf08…12a3backed Carstensz | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Carstensz | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54fa…2c2ebacked Mentality Monster | 38c | 55.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -34%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Carstensz | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Mentality Monster | 70c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5885…d089backed Carstensz | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -4.0wins | -0.45per pick | 67cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5920…2f2abacked Carstensz | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked Carstensz | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stagethis page
- Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz - Game 1 WinnerMentality Monster won
- Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz - Game 2 WinnerCarstensz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.