Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb07278fa63df81adddac6ecf82feebed5d73d05c4d32631399946b6558d3ecf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carstenszof Mentality Monster, Carstensz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked Carstensz | 66c | 623.99$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.3 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Mentality Monster | 48c | 300.23$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.03 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Mentality Monster | 44c | 241.39$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.3 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Carstensz | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Mentality Monster | 34c | 158.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.25 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Mentality Monster | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Carstensz | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59f…0d08backed Carstensz | 50c | 96.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +17.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe140…d611backed Mentality Monster | 50c | 96.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Carstensz | 58c | 38.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 377 | 45.4%171 W · 206 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9195backed Mentality Monster | 42c | 36.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Mentality Monster | 45c | 32.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Mentality Monster | 49c | 23.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Mentality Monster | 59c | 18.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea51…0f69backed Carstensz | 72c | 14.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group StageMentality Monster won
- Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz - Game 1 WinnerMentality Monster won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.