MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44a9ae80b26b2572a0d49a5cf536cb32f5df09db023d9b9a0a9b7c87a65149d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,444
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 59c | 15,000$8,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,849.99 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Under | 41c | 7,500$3,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,425 | 191 | 43.5%83 W · 108 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 41c | 5,455$2,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,218.72 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 41c | 1,173$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.07 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 54c | 634.84$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.53 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 41c | 500.26$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.1 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 46c | 239.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.47 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3d…58f5backed Under | 41c | 222.75$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.42 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d60…453dbacked Under | 67c | 150.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 321 | 66.4%213 W · 108 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d28…ad43backed Over | 38c | 130.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 46c | 121.95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 29c | 112.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…2096backed Under | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 46c | 106.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 37c | 101$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 36c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…301cbacked Under | 63c | 55.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 88 | 62.5%55 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 59c | 29.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 23.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.