MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe5102a468520aeab660df71f8de22b6a81f2ea4fec52b7828ab6a01f2d82ffba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Chicago Cubs, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 70c | 5,818$4,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,766.12 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago Cubs | 29c | 3,900$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…0841backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 2,320$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.36 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 1,416$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.04 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Chicago Cubs | 34c | 1,162$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 1,042$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.92 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…b180backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 734.11$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.99 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 709.3$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago Cubs | 25c | 691.1$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.32 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 581.4$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Chicago Cubs | 39c | 466.84$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 416.23$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.76 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 400$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 359.99$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 316.59$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 314$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.02 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 253.48$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.82 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf50f…0586backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 229.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +5.7wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 169.14$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.04 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 149.23$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Chicago Cubs | 28c | 138.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.85 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 125$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 125$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Chicago Cubs | 29c | 104.87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 103.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 86.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…2096backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 75.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 73.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 73$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 67.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Chicago Cubs | 33c | 67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 59.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Chicago Cubs | 27c | 58.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 70c | 53.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 48.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…a39bbacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Chicago Cubs | 29c | 37.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 96 | 41.7%40 W · 56 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…1483backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 71c | 18.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 17.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.