MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee5ea05c42eb52a8abb57be8f19213a2c4827a83ed516a61a5cdb4adaae5720b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,067
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 50c | 4,891$2,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,455.46 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Under | 49c | 3,194$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,629.05 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.99 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 1,391$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.79 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Over | 46c | 844.17$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.88 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6a…1ddbbacked Over | 46c | 788.55$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 61c | 658$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 26c | 585.3$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 46c | 543.48$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa382…d301backed Over | 46c | 508.7$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 497.48$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.96 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 26c | 422.59$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.26 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 399.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 47c | 376.65$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.62 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Over | 47c | 361.7$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8884…3457backed Over | 47c | 334.85$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.38 | 281 | 54.4%153 W · 128 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 50c | 299.71$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.32 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 55c | 290.91$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.91 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7673…fa40backed Over | 46c | 282.61$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 39c | 278$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.42 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 53c | 263$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.45 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 49c | 251.45$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.24 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 247.05$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.11 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 34c | 238.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Under | 54c | 234.82$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.02 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 53c | 195.3$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.73 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 54c | 194.44$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 48c | 165$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed Over | 46c | 163.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 28c | 149.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 127.81$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 46c | 125.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 47c | 101.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 27c | 90.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…e861backed Over | 49c | 61.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 28c | 58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 46c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Over | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…9c13backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 50c | 41.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 54c | 40.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b16…a327backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Under | 47c | 31.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 54c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 54c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf574…de82backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago CubsChicago Cubs won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Chicago Cubs won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.