Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44aa956c7995f11ecaf4955f0a889b497070e83879e630e218cf889167066b29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ce0…5a0abacked Yes | 1c | 1,885$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 5c | 546.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.31 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997e…990dbacked Yes | 19c | 486.69$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 410$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked Yes | 14c | 338.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.41 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 11c | 286.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 6c | 266.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 19c | 261.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33b…17d4backed Yes | 42c | 199.13$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 26c | 188.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 80c | 182.63$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.53 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 15c | 177.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked Yes | 8c | 176.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd91e…4e59backed Yes | 20c | 142.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 133.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 122.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 120.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…2c0dbacked No | 71c | 117.88$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 87.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 14c | 74.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 27c | 69.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 68.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 16c | 68.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed Yes | 23c | 67.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 66.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…ac2fbacked Yes | 31c | 65.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 63.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 67c | 60.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 48.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 48.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 43.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…13f1backed Yes | 36c | 42.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 30c | 38.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 77c | 38.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 77c | 37.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 28c | 36.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 71c | 33.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 55c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 31.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1183…f754backed Yes | 34c | 31.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked No | 65c | 28.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 72c | 27.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 25.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 78c | 21.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 74c | 21.06$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.