TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 24?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,419
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$24,213

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,419 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes44c4,363$1,916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,447.3230919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No39c685.11$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.2812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes63c600.83$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.725,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x162e…fe52backed No60c470.93$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.644037.5%15 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-38.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes35c434.63$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.51,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes39c405.53$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.7940025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes71c359.95$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7542130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No52c318.48$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.853525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…bc23backed No65c306.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.5581165.8%534 W · 277 L-37.1wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes58c248.86$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.5920631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes49c238.76$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.5931442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes38c230.14$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.331,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No11c227$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.976219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7716…43b6backed Yes15c214.91$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.713821.1%8 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+52.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb077…74d3backed No57c211.2$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9866944.7%299 W · 370 L+3.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c187.75$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.1217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d7…e878backed Yes34c178.48$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.5323743%102 W · 135 L+0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No37c156.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.392,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef98…7926backed No50c148.44$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.3642315.4%65 W · 358 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36da…907bbacked No70c146.5$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.998239%32 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes33c140.32$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.5210780.4%86 W · 21 L+21.9wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+37.4%equal weight68+0.17 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes77c136.99$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6261659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No42c131.33$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.567,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes28c121.56$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9725037.6%94 W · 156 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb08…c7d9backed Yes60c112.21$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.18425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-58.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eb9…901ebacked No58c110.44$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.425766.7%38 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick67cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes27c100$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7332041.9%134 W · 186 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed No66c99.98$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.994963.3%31 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed No58c96.64$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7617358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b1…c4d3backed Yes22c95.92$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.432025%5 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+90%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes43c90.44$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.4519160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes35c89.11$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6563538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes33c82.3$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.4674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce8a…2fbabacked No66c82.21$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.12366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08eb…9ca4backed No62c77.52$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.11361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes22c75.77$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.1765934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No44c71.31$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.461,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca41…8486backed No52c68.95$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.857939.2%31 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes16c68.83$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.021,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No71c68.61$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.411,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No75c65.42$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7942976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes20c64.56$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6193837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5121…a989backed Yes29c64.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.85666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+65.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No31c61.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes40c60$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3616234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes33c57.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.846823.5%16 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No54c57.96$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe90a…64cebacked Yes67c55.44$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.191546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes44c54.68$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4146240.5%187 W · 275 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf694…24e3backed Yes39c53.33$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5311129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No71c53.31$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.762,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes46c52.5$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.4144945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked No55c50.88$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes47c50.59$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6218668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x966f…175bbacked No57c50.44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.71650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+41.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cdb…ba6cbacked Yes25c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid+33.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes42c49.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.991,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed No57c48.47$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4886420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No54c47.05$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.594,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes45c46.92$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.841,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No66c46$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.172,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85e8…9301backed Yes33c45.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.5211362.8%71 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No77c44.39$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0930859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4230…152ebacked No71c41.03$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.135032%16 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2779…5e59backed Yes46c40.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.993860.5%23 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+30.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No60c39.95$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2411977.3%92 W · 27 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe395…9744backed Yes41c39.62$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.56560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+49.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No77c38.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.870770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c36.62$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.023,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes47c35.97$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.218255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10e0…92e4backed Yes45c34.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9627744%122 W · 155 L+0.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No49c34.33$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.981,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes42c32.92$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.2352533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a3b…2eb3backed No58c32.68$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9111652.6%61 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…9936backed No59c32.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1810059%59 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdd4…6084backed No60c32.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.213534.1%46 W · 89 L-6.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0619…0379backed Yes43c30.58$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.4954857.5%315 W · 233 L+13.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No63c30$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.993734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No72c29.47$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2788973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9df…1e41backed No66c29.36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.322937.9%11 W · 18 L-6.1wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-41.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes43c28.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.134158.5%24 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No55c28$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.44,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No61c27.16$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.572,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x693c…d079backed No73c26.27$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.182839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe68d…a52bbacked No57c25.8$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed No73c25.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3229770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No45c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a59…8135backed No42c24.52$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c04…3d8bbacked No55c24.07$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.259161.5%56 W · 35 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9a…8ea6backed No70c23.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4918878.2%147 W · 41 L+19.4wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+17.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No59c20.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1583459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1632…ad5abacked No58c20.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6650261%306 W · 196 L-17.9wins-0.04per pick65cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No67c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.441,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc1f…0147backed No72c19.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a7…d69dbacked No75c19.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6323549.4%116 W · 119 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed No73c17.9$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0142049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2cc7…54abbacked No77c16.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7118650.5%94 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7277…f237backed No78c15.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.13540%2 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick74cpaid-46.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.