Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78ba278a08f6342181fd7f315f71bae5c5a33583595694485dcfc01604b54803
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,074$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.33 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked Yes | 51c | 951.58$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.86 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 74c | 682$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.62 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed No | 63c | 546.46$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.57 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…8f7abacked Yes | 46c | 499.36$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.33 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 51c | 431.17$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.63 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 411.12$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.02 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 402.78$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 332.52$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.85 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 61c | 322.22$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.93 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 41c | 311.14$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.11 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 53c | 248.33$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.7 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 42c | 236.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.7 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 199.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 36c | 176.43$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 45c | 173.32$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.8 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 59c | 159.43$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.09 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b2…cf28backed Yes | 62c | 157.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.33 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…02c3backed Yes | 43c | 154.66$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.01 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 152.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 40c | 141.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 47c | 133.34$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 132.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.3 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 37c | 131.22$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.34 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 46c | 129.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 63c | 118.04$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.69 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…d16abacked Yes | 42c | 116.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee7…d318backed Yes | 78c | 114.54$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…5e59backed Yes | 52c | 111.64$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.51 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 42c | 111.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c51…7c37backed Yes | 69c | 108.85$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 45c | 104.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 99.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb08…c7d9backed Yes | 58c | 98.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 45c | 97.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.54 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 60c | 97.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 97.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 40c | 90.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 45c | 90.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…d78fbacked No | 57c | 86.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.34 | 126 | 70.6%89 W · 37 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…2007backed Yes | 51c | 86.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1686…bc9fbacked Yes | 46c | 86.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +254.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 36c | 83.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5127…6f96backed No | 57c | 83.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 123 | 74%91 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…c34fbacked No | 60c | 80.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 129 | 62.8%81 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 49c | 78.75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a3…5799backed Yes | 31c | 77.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 41c | 76.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…e2cdbacked Yes | 74c | 76.34$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed Yes | 50c | 73.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 44c | 72.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 52c | 71.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…79febacked Yes | 52c | 70.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…c045backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 47c | 67.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 42c | 67.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 40c | 63.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 45c | 63.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 52c | 63.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 42c | 61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 58c | 60.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 45c | 57.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 55c | 56.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 49c | 53.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 49c | 53.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 57c | 50.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 57c | 50.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf33…5d4fbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 33c | 49.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 38c | 49.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb9…901ebacked No | 53c | 48.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed No | 35c | 47.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.66 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 56c | 46.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…2bd6backed Yes | 39c | 43.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked No | 58c | 43.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…95f4backed Yes | 55c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 39.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 49c | 36.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 49c | 34.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 44c | 33.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 32.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 63c | 31.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 48c | 30.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…1b64backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4033…48c5backed Yes | 53c | 28.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 43c | 28.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…9eb8backed No | 56c | 28.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 38c | 28.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 57c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 49c | 26.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd763…bd7fbacked No | 49c | 26.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 68c | 25.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on April 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.