Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44ab4e24799e1c182c8cd5012e8b466ab99af77c25d005630b3a25901d7255b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57fd…2b3ebacked Yes | 0c | 19,800$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b21…59d7backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…7523backed Yes | 38c | 2,714$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.21 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb28c…be33backed Yes | 40c | 908.4$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b0…1f9abacked Yes | 36c | 497.24$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.71 | 275 | 34.2%94 W · 181 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x787a…e636backed Yes | 37c | 456.33$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x584e…090fbacked Yes | 33c | 369.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.11 | 478 | 34.3%164 W · 314 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 39c | 320$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.45 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…0137backed Yes | 33c | 315.62$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 65c | 309.86$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.28 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 253.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed Yes | 39c | 231.84$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.73 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 69c | 228.4$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.43 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1578…4b73backed Yes | 37c | 216.59$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…fd14backed Yes | 46c | 216.46$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c3…f37bbacked Yes | 49c | 197.92$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3d…ad73backed Yes | 39c | 180$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…4ff6backed No | 69c | 167.82$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 33c | 132.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d57…9569backed Yes | 40c | 125.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 59c | 119.82$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed No | 64c | 117.18$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.18 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 65cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 36c | 105.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc6…464cbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed No | 77c | 86.58$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7621…c580backed No | 57c | 77.54$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c5…cdc6backed Yes | 52c | 76.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…f004backed No | 64c | 68.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd232…5286backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…47d4backed Yes | 34c | 59.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…c3f7backed Yes | 37c | 56.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 33c | 54.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7149…1301backed Yes | 37c | 54.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…4bcdbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c04…7031backed Yes | 34c | 48.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…5cd6backed Yes | 34c | 47.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d39…cb7cbacked Yes | 41c | 47.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 173 | 34.7%60 W · 113 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca9b…217fbacked Yes | 43c | 47.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18de…0b64backed Yes | 43c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e8e…1ef0backed Yes | 58c | 46.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc13e…6051backed Yes | 33c | 43.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc8…91f1backed Yes | 42c | 42.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…6edbbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3630…22c9backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb93…df7dbacked Yes | 33c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…5250backed Yes | 39c | 33.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…04d6backed Yes | 40c | 32.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 59c | 32.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb032…4e09backed Yes | 38c | 31.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked No | 61c | 24.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…404ebacked Yes | 46c | 22.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 61c | 17.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 57-58°F on November 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 52°F or below on November 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 63°F or higher on November 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on November 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 55-56°F on November 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 59-60°F on November 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.