Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Stefano Travaglia vs Luka Mikrut
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44bbaab39e92b3e726b9e69ee33c688f24574f7294238034138f1750e82b2c1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Stefano Travagliaof Stefano Travaglia, Luka Mikrut
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $131,144
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,207
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $131,144 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc53c…b769backed Stefano Travaglia | 68c | 102,355$69,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,027.69 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Luka Mikrut | 32c | 86,938$28,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,032.82 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…3c92backed Stefano Travaglia | 67c | 4,800$3,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.99 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Luka Mikrut | 31c | 4,722$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.4 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Luka Mikrut | 30c | 4,510$1,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.7 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Luka Mikrut | 31c | 2,930$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.94 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0852…655cbacked Luka Mikrut | 12c | 1,941$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Luka Mikrut | 26c | 1,939$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.98 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Luka Mikrut | 21c | 1,405$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 1,504 | 35.1%528 W · 976 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Luka Mikrut | 30c | 1,287$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.09 | 1,959 | 43.7%857 W · 1,102 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Luka Mikrut | 14c | 716.82$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Luka Mikrut | 35c | 687.99$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.55 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Stefano Travaglia | 63c | 582.33$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.19 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Stefano Travaglia | 70c | 553$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.9 | 1,023 | 41.3%422 W · 601 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Luka Mikrut | 31c | 463.07$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.81 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e64…336dbacked Luka Mikrut | 31c | 460.82$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.85 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Stefano Travaglia | 61c | 448.72$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 521 | 52.2%272 W · 249 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Stefano Travaglia | 78c | 418.43$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.39 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Luka Mikrut | 32c | 406.44$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.98 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Luka Mikrut | 30c | 381.95$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.59 | 921 | 45.2%416 W · 505 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9694…b7adbacked Stefano Travaglia | 64c | 337.75$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.59 | 2,058 | 59.5%1,225 W · 833 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Luka Mikrut | 38c | 305.32$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.79 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Luka Mikrut | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…6fbabacked Luka Mikrut | 25c | 300$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.35 | 801 | 53.1%425 W · 376 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Luka Mikrut | 16c | 277.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 302 | 26.8%81 W · 221 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Luka Mikrut | 38c | 269.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Luka Mikrut | 22c | 256.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Luka Mikrut | 18c | 221.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Luka Mikrut | 34c | 220$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 222 | 46.8%104 W · 118 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…1af5backed Luka Mikrut | 35c | 206.27$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 226 | 47.8%108 W · 118 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Luka Mikrut | 38c | 203.03$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 439 | 52.4%230 W · 209 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…d474backed Luka Mikrut | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 889 | 35.2%313 W · 576 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Luka Mikrut | 33c | 184$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Stefano Travaglia | 76c | 180.19$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.79 | 803 | 41.8%336 W · 467 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Luka Mikrut | 23c | 174$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Luka Mikrut | 34c | 172.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Luka Mikrut | 37c | 162.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,186 | 52.4%622 W · 564 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed Luka Mikrut | 31c | 161$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.91 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Stefano Travaglia | 63c | 135$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.95 | 846 | 40%338 W · 508 L | -22.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6384…3d67backed Stefano Travaglia | 77c | 127.7$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 120 | 61.7%74 W · 46 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Luka Mikrut | 22c | 126.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 2,049 | 46.8%958 W · 1,091 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…7cefbacked Luka Mikrut | 33c | 107.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 367 | 43.6%160 W · 207 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Stefano Travaglia | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Luka Mikrut | 39c | 94.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 2,462 | 38.5%948 W · 1,514 L | +93.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa859…48b9backed Stefano Travaglia | 68c | 86.76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Luka Mikrut | 20c | 81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb05e…599abacked Stefano Travaglia | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Stefano Travaglia | 63c | 76.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Luka Mikrut | 37c | 73.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 508 | 45.9%233 W · 275 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Luka Mikrut | 33c | 72.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Luka Mikrut | 29c | 65.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 186 | 48.4%90 W · 96 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Luka Mikrut | 18c | 65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3daa…524bbacked Luka Mikrut | 37c | 62.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Luka Mikrut | 32c | 62.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 356 | 49.4%176 W · 180 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Luka Mikrut | 29c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Luka Mikrut | 37c | 54.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6195…388abacked Luka Mikrut | 31c | 53.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Stefano Travaglia | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 574 | 49.1%282 W · 292 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Luka Mikrut | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 234 | 27.4%64 W · 170 L | -40.1wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Stefano Travaglia | 61c | 48.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 222 | 55.4%123 W · 99 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa599…5230backed Luka Mikrut | 30c | 47.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Stefano Travaglia | 61c | 45.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 335 | 58.5%196 W · 139 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Stefano Travaglia | 67c | 36.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6fb9backed Luka Mikrut | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 584 | 53.1%310 W · 274 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Luka Mikrut | 38c | 32.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe189…5f9abacked Luka Mikrut | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 36cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Luka Mikrut | 39c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 627 | 27.3%171 W · 456 L | -15.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c12…5d45backed Stefano Travaglia | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.