Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Tsitsipas vs Ruud
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44ce314b0eae6bf5df246823fd80b5c23fe2f98278f7d42de5b5221a9a349e50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tsitsipasof Tsitsipas, Ruud
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Tsitsipas | 53c | 1,038$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.01 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb416…4588backed Ruud | 39c | 699.99$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.99 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…d211backed Ruud | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa467…587dbacked Tsitsipas | 42c | 316.64$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Ruud | 22c | 267$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.87 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…edcfbacked Tsitsipas | 41c | 244.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.02 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Ruud | 57c | 219.79$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.65 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ruud | 58c | 123.01$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3540…e935backed Ruud | 68c | 81.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf481…7911backed Tsitsipas | 77c | 77.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Tsitsipas | 50c | 63.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Tsitsipas | 54c | 59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Ruud | 67c | 54.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 542 | 49.3%267 W · 275 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Tsitsipas | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Tsitsipas | 43c | 48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.46 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9531…18ffbacked Tsitsipas | 40c | 42.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 116 | 41.4%48 W · 68 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd7…d742backed Tsitsipas | 74c | 37.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +127.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Ruud | 66c | 25.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Tsitsipas vs Ruudthis page
- Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Casper RuudCasper Ruud won
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Tsitsipas (+1.5)Tsitsipas won
- Tsitsipas vs. Ruud: Match O/U 22.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.