Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Buse vs Paul
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44e1ed23eec177e1ca801e408a93d8df1808c01cb0ce946a3aba6faf63aa504f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Buseof Buse, Paul
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,099
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,099 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Paul | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Buse | 58c | 820.74$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.98 | 4,602 | 48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L | +34.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Buse | 41c | 742.36$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.99 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d1…8e71backed Paul | 63c | 594.41$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Buse | 41c | 534.6$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.41 | 390 | 46.4%181 W · 209 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Paul | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa1…a420backed Buse | 47c | 308.72$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.62 | 512 | 36.5%187 W · 325 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d74…f2abbacked Buse | 79c | 254.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.14 | 433 | 34.9%151 W · 282 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…5ffebacked Paul | 59c | 253.44$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Buse | 59c | 252.11$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Buse | 47c | 197.61$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.7 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Paul | 61c | 180.65$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.08 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…ecdbbacked Buse | 46c | 107.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 489 | 35.8%175 W · 314 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Buse | 47c | 107.03$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Paul | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Buse | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 157 | 51.6%81 W · 76 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Buse | 37c | 93.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.64 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Paul | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Paul | 55c | 70.91$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Paul | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Paul | 54c | 40.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 499 | 43.5%217 W · 282 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Paul | 55c | 39.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…eda7backed Paul | 70c | 35.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Paul | 55c | 34.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Buse | 45c | 28.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Buse | 50c | 27.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Paul | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Buse vs Paulthis page
- Buse vs. Paul: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Buse vs. Paul: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Buse vs. Paul: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy PaulIgnacio Buse won
- Ignacio Buse vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Buse (+1.5)Buse won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.