Asian League · resolved market
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44f0dc1726cae12eecd3028aa6ccaf977f3ba4ecf8da0b2e3fddaac69d2054c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 37c | 6,634$2,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,487.46 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…761fbacked Over | 70c | 6,000$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,799.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 40c | 1,917$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.43 | 193 | 40.9%79 W · 114 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf6…0e3bbacked Over | 53c | 1,164$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.98 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…b09bbacked Over | 44c | 1,143$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.45 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…f757backed Over | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3baf…7d44backed Over | 27c | 834.58$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.74 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 35cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 34c | 666.12$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.56 | 206 | 38.8%80 W · 126 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…5e3fbacked Under | 53c | 530$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.9 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -41%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 73c | 382.72$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.6 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 71c | 352.11$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.11 | 334 | 52.7%176 W · 158 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff14…dd5bbacked Under | 20c | 350.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Under | 16c | 301$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca3d…2fd7backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 44c | 293.06$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.28 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 38c | 236.69$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.84 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf4…ac20backed Over | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.33 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Over | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 74c | 179.11$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 138 | 55.8%77 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 75c | 146.57$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.97 | 892 | 45%401 W · 491 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…5b51backed Under | 46c | 103.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd68e…8048backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1b…8306backed Over | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 16c | 88.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 40c | 80$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 185 | 43.8%81 W · 104 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfe…4feebacked Over | 39c | 79.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe325…34d0backed Under | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 25c | 66.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 32c | 62.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 261 | 36.8%96 W · 165 L | -18.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66bf…07e8backed Over | 41c | 58.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c8…a24abacked Over | 42c | 57.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 53c | 49.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 92 | 68.5%63 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Over | 65c | 43.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Over | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e09…2d11backed Over | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 35.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0255…4eb0backed Over | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee84…becbbacked Over | 40c | 27.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…eeb1backed Over | 62c | 27.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…3d52backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…d7abbacked Over | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba1d…d326backed Over | 76c | 19.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | -8.5wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-2.5)Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC won
- Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5)Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.