Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x454219dc895fbd21bab2831e654bd5d72ef17fb554839d6f14369a4272c3b8c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x754b…a66ebacked Yes | 0c | 12,488$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 74 | 1.4%1 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6081…def1backed Yes | 51c | 4,700$2,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,397 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…bc37backed No | 49c | 4,700$2,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,397 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 1c | 3,711$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…1b47backed Yes | 1c | 1,024$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 4c | 370.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c8…34efbacked Yes | 9c | 195.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed Yes | 16c | 182.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 17c | 178.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 158.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 66c | 119.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 31c | 100.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 43c | 85.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c6…c6cebacked No | 72c | 77.62$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed Yes | 34c | 76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 31c | 69.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 68.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf360…6726backed Yes | 34c | 66.24$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3592…c81abacked Yes | 38c | 65.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 17c | 64.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 46c | 44.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f79…6125backed Yes | 47c | 41.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 62c | 40.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 34c | 38.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce9…a6cbbacked No | 65c | 37.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…a51fbacked No | 55c | 36.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…f330backed Yes | 39c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 34.85$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81d4…c743backed Yes | 43c | 34.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…ca6dbacked Yes | 35c | 32.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 50c | 31.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b2…fd70backed Yes | 50c | 30.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…ae50backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 29.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9523…a6b9backed Yes | 36c | 28.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…3a6cbacked No | 62c | 27.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 27.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 40c | 25.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4950…d8edbacked Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 62c | 24.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…2509backed Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb24…6f60backed No | 51c | 20.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 63c | 17.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0277…a546backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 77c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 68°F or higher on February 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 54-55°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.