Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 68°F or higher on February 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06d2fa514970276f839bddcfa40e9519770523a914039ba503ec1b2115d23eb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 1c | 2,512$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 453.76$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.96 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 66c | 300$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.95 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1558…4f75backed Yes | 30c | 276.46$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.82 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +28%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 49c | 218.37$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf911…8d8ebacked No | 62c | 207.97$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.32 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 196.3$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.56 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 62c | 191.27$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.06 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 37c | 123.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.73 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…c1dbbacked Yes | 41c | 119$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc5…af1cbacked Yes | 28c | 108.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.24 | 76 | 9.2%7 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 27c | 99.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf82b…8e81backed Yes | 27c | 91.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.1 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 35c | 89.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.74 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 69c | 87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 24c | 85.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 62c | 80.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 34c | 79.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 79.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f5…029bbacked Yes | 34c | 77.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 32c | 77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.02 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x104c…050cbacked Yes | 37c | 76.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 49c | 75.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 30c | 72.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.55 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 72c | 70.63$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 70c | 69.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d3…7bcbbacked Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 73c | 58.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 34c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 54.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 54.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb607…8d32backed No | 72c | 53.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 61c | 53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 64c | 51.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 47.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 45.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87dc…1babbacked No | 69c | 43.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 33c | 43.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 25c | 40.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb8…f592backed Yes | 34c | 40.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 62c | 40.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed Yes | 35c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 71c | 37.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540f…4bf4backed Yes | 41c | 36.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.34 | 64 | 67.2%43 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 73c | 32.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c1…8c6bbacked No | 74c | 31.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 105 | 31.4%33 W · 72 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 62c | 30.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…31c4backed Yes | 38c | 30.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…6469backed No | 72c | 28.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 67c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e7…3de8backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Yes | 45c | 24.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked No | 72c | 20.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d2b…815abacked No | 68c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 102 | 64.7%66 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a7…e9d3backed No | 75c | 14.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 68°F or higher on February 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 54-55°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 60-61°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 62-63°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 64-65°F on February 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 66-67°F on February 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.