Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Marquette Golden Eagles (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4551a4c489b4146387fac239e8e0a667455947e9154e77ea41fd8f700a37e838
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xavier Musketeersof Marquette Golden Eagles, Xavier Musketeers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,796 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Marquette Golden Eagles | 47c | 2,779$1,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,305.4 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Xavier Musketeers | 53c | 2,200$1,166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,034 | 488 | 55.1%269 W · 219 L | +17.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca4e…f97ebacked Xavier Musketeers | 52c | 999.99$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 48c | 846.25$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.81 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Xavier Musketeers | 52c | 536.96$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.84 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Marquette Golden Eagles | 48c | 413.03$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.25 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 47c | 232$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Xavier Musketeers | 53c | 218.08$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Xavier Musketeers | 52c | 209.69$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.65 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 49c | 122.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Marquette Golden Eagles | 48c | 104.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Xavier Musketeers | 52c | 103.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc991…abd4backed Xavier Musketeers | 53c | 99.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Xavier Musketeers | 52c | 96.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Xavier Musketeers | 53c | 93.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.95 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Xavier Musketeers | 53c | 92.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 248 | 57.3%142 W · 106 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 47c | 88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 624 | 51.1%319 W · 305 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…c3e8backed Xavier Musketeers | 53c | 84.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Xavier Musketeers | 53c | 52.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Marquette Golden Eagles | 48c | 51.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c75…de96backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 49c | 30.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 50c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Marquette Golden Eagles | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 296 | 50.7%150 W · 146 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Marquette Golden Eagles | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 330 | 58.2%192 W · 138 L | +24.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Xavier Musketeers | 53c | 20.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 172 | 58.7%101 W · 71 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed Xavier Musketeers | 53c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Marquette Golden Eagles (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Marquette Golden Eagles (-3.5)Xavier Musketeers won
- Xavier Musketeers vs. Marquette Golden EaglesXavier Musketeers won
- Xavier Musketeers vs. Marquette Golden Eagles: O/U 154.5Over won
- Xavier Musketeers vs. Marquette Golden Eagles: O/U 156.5Over won
- Xavier Musketeers vs. Marquette Golden Eagles: O/U 157.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.