MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45a446c318ff4afed41067edc418c34f122875f630fd4746c925f48ea854c558
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,966
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 5c | 1,055$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 32c | 554.59$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.47 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +8.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3354…5042backed Under | 59c | 499.5$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.96 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | -8.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 316.49$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.56 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 42c | 251.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.84 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 58c | 238.86$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.72 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 41c | 220$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ca…3d64backed Under | 58c | 198.86$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 196.16$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.48 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 42c | 193.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.08 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Over | 43c | 179.68$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.26 | 395 | 53.7%212 W · 183 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 41c | 178.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…e194backed Under | 60c | 114.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x112e…0d1fbacked Under | 78c | 69.58$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 54c | 65.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…42c6backed Under | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b71…9fcdbacked Under | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 42c | 47.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 70c | 38.38$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 60c | 36.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 42c | 32.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 59c | 32.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 54c | 28.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 59c | 22.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc01d…2e79backed Under | 61c | 19.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3056…2b09backed Under | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.