MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4c0856293620a49badcf640dee9a284af1590b01ba27cb8625802a2cf4efddd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,162
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,162 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Texas Rangers | 60c | 971.11$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.4 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 558.13$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.97 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 483.55$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.13 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Texas Rangers | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Seattle Mariners | 36c | 192.32$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 156.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.06 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 130.13$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 102.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Texas Rangers | 58c | 96.43$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 79.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 58.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 56.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 49.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 48.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 48.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 873 | 52.7%460 W · 413 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Texas Rangers | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 37.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Texas Rangers | 79c | 37.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…e8c8backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 326 | 47.9%156 W · 170 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 31.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 30.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe7…c233backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 25.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Texas Rangers | 60c | 22.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Texas Rangers | 60c | 22.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…be97backed Texas Rangers | 61c | 16.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.