Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45b19a4b48cea3fb1960c0cda18575510657b28136149a2490391910657cac02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 12c | 2,295$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 40c | 755.91$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.93 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 17c | 590.13$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.59 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 396.28$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.12 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 21c | 385.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.33 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 6c | 359.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…7dc1backed No | 9c | 332.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 272.07$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.49 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 59c | 269.85$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.21 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 17c | 253.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.91 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5463…df6bbacked No | 7c | 205.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 17c | 204.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.09 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed No | 80c | 193.9$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.82 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…ba5cbacked Yes | 25c | 159.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +30%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…e6f0backed No | 51c | 157.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 139.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed No | 76c | 135.5$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…6f0bbacked No | 14c | 123.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 19c | 117.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.97 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 115.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 29c | 114.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 20c | 108$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 26c | 105.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.89 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 18c | 100.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.06 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 16c | 92.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.12 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 91.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4914…722ebacked Yes | 29c | 91.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 17c | 81.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 61c | 77.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 29c | 75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.25 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 38c | 65.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 28c | 65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf21…2ed8backed Yes | 19c | 63.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 50.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 42.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 25c | 41.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4968…cda7backed Yes | 25c | 40.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked No | 70c | 39.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…96d3backed No | 77c | 38.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 55c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 71c | 37.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04cf…d902backed Yes | 28c | 35.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 37c | 34.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.68 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 46c | 31.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe573…ae05backed No | 70c | 28.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 77c | 26.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 42c | 24.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…3c05backed No | 57c | 20.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 70c | 17.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd80…7919backed No | 70c | 15.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.