Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on February 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb7e22f61a69b9839b5991911d15000a80df24fa39b3f03680d2a1e427914887
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,437
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 0c | 4,810$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…6690backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 15c | 594.21$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.32 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 16c | 507.12$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.06 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 8c | 413.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed Yes | 12c | 390.8$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 347.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 228.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 215.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 199.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…4043backed Yes | 16c | 182.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 13c | 178.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 30c | 177.92$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.59 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x531e…a7b3backed Yes | 18c | 152.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 131.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed Yes | 12c | 119.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 119.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 15c | 116.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 22c | 115.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed No | 80c | 113.06$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 109.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc04…f063backed Yes | 19c | 109.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 19c | 107.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 20c | 102.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 25c | 101.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 76c | 92.9$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…4161backed Yes | 16c | 82.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…7864backed Yes | 14c | 81.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed6…bca0backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68cd…e8d7backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 25c | 54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 23c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 77c | 30.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 65c | 27.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 75c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 76c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed No | 77c | 24.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e7…6ecfbacked No | 76c | 24.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x095b…6f34backed No | 78c | 24.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | +10.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed No | 80c | 23.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe867…4e6ebacked No | 80c | 23.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked No | 78c | 23.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 75c | 22.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 75c | 18.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on February 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 72°F or higher on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on February 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on February 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on February 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.